Roll out the red carpets: it's Oscars night!
The 97th Academy Awards are being presented tonight, Sunday, March 2, 2025, and we're here to help with your Oscars ballots.
We'll answer big questions like "Who's likely to actually to win?", "Have I actually heard of any of these movies?" and "What should I really care about?" - and everything in between.
After a rough couple of years, 2024 felt like the closest thing to a normal season of movie-going since the pandemic (even with a rough start following the late 2023 Hollywood strikes).
Now that new movies are being released on a regular basis, new productions are being ordered, and all the health crises and strikes are over, it seems we the audience can finally go back to just enjoying ourselves watching great movies again.
2024 was an incredible year for new movies, including several crowd-pleasing blockbusters that made for some truly great memories. Big-screen hits like Wicked and The Wild Robot and sequels like Dune Part 2 and Inside Out 2 were all massively successful this year.
With recently dwindling viewership and the opportunity to capitalize on well-known titles this year, there are high stakes for the Oscars to have a good show tonight. Luckily, host Conan O'Brien is poised to put on a great show, especially riding goodwill from great broadcasts for the last two years.
It can be easy to feel cynical about another awards show, but this is the Oscars - it really is an honour and a big deal to be a winner. (And yes, it really also is an honour just to be nominated.)
My advice is to take the show's spirit seriously and the literal show less so. You’ll relax and have a lot more fun - and make the photo finish for Best Picture this year all the more exciting.
Oscars ballot cheat-sheet
With so many great films, who’s likely going to bring home a statuette? That’s always harder to guess than your might suspect. If you want some help filling out an Oscar ballot, my annual cheat sheet is listed below.
I saw more than 160 movies last year, including almost all of the nominated feature-length movies at tonight’s show. After seeing many of last year's biggest hits, let me help you figure out the likeliest winners.
It’s worth remembering that predicting the Oscars isn’t about who you want to win. It’s about who you think the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Science actually voted to win.
And not that I like to brag, but my track record is pretty good. Back in 2022 I was almost perfect (having guessed 22/23, missing just one category), and the last two years I ended up correctly predicting 18 of the 23 winners.
Unlike last year when Oppenheimer dominated the ceremony and a dozen other films mostly shared what was left, this one should see a couple of key winners winning multiple Oscars each (which is more commonly what happens).
Here are my predictions for the movies I believe will win each prize tonight. You can use my background and predictions to help you win your Oscar ballot tonight.
ANORA
- Best Picture
- Best Director for Sean Baker
- Best Original Screenplay for Sean Baker
- Best Film Editing
THE BRUTALIST
- Best Actor for Adrien Brody
- Best Cinematography
- Best Original Score for Daniel Blumberg
EMILIA PÉREZ
- Best Supporting Actress for Zoe Saldaña
- "El Mal" (Best Original Song)
- Best International Film
THE SUBSTANCE
- Best Actress for Demi Moore
- Best Makeup and Hairstyling
WICKED (Part 1)
- Best Costume Design
- Best Production Design
- Best Sound
First, Best Picture this year will be a very close race between Anora, The Brutalist and Conclave, in that order. Anora's goodwill in so many other categories is what will likely be the tiebreaker.
Read more here: Conclave Review - Catholic contests make a magnificent, must-see mystery
Emilia Pérez, the musical from Netflix, led with the most nominations, but that's no indicator of wins. Expect it to lose most of the big categories, especially with the controversies that have surrounded its production and some cast members.
Meanwhile, expect megahit Wicked to clean up most technical prizes this year (but Dune Part 2 could also steal one or two.)
Finally, each of the remaining eight movies should be expected to win one award each:
- Kieran Culkin in A Real Pain (Best Supporting Actor)
- Peter Straughn for Conclave (Best Adapted Screenplay)
- Dune Part Two (Best Visual Effects)
- The Wild Robot (Best Animated Feature)
- No Other Land (Best Documentary Feature)
- Yuck! (Best Animated Short)
- I Am Ready, Warden (Best Documentary Short)
- The Man Who Could Not Remain Silent (Best Live Action Short)
One last secret pro tip: the closest award (and toughest to predict) this year will be Best Film Editing. But it's a great bellwether for who will win Best Picture in a year where the voting will be incredibly close.
While I'm predicting Anora will take home the Oscar, don't be surprised if Conclave or The Brutalist come up with a surprise win.
Tonight’s ceremony begins airing on various networks at 7 p.m. (like last year, an hour earlier than traditionally), but the red carpet pre-show begins on most channels at 6 p.m.
