With United States President Donald Trump threatening to follow through with a 25 per cent tariff on Canadian goods, West End Home Builder Association CEO Mike Collins-Williams says Ontario’s housing market is in for choppy waters.
“Wild that we have to talk about Donald Trump when we think about housing and Waterdown and Flamborough, but it actually is seeming to have, in the last few weeks, a cooling effect. If people are worried about their jobs or the economy – they're less likely to make a major purchase,” Collins-Williams said.
Trump has stated he will impose tariffs on Canada starting March 5.
While Waterdown is looking at potentially thousands of new town homes, detached homes and condo units in the coming years, Collins-Williams said housing starts – meaning the start of construction on a new residential unit – are at a historic low.
“There's still construction activity happening in Waterdown and Flamborough, but that's more reflective of things that would have started construction in 2023 and earlier in 2024,” he said.
But while condo and single detached home sales are falling and stagnating, Collins-Williams says town homes remain stable.
“One product line that seemed to weather the storm in 2024 were town homes. There seems to be not a lot, but some interest in that product line right now and in my view, hitting a sweet spot of the attainable housing prices, while still being a family-friendly type of housing,” he said.
Natasha Paikan is the director of client experience at New Horizons Development Group. The developers behind the Trend condo buildings in east Waterdown have a few upcoming projects.
Their 18-unit townhouse project, called The Towns on Valley Trail Place, sold an unprecedented 90 per cent of its units before construction began. Paikan said that shows how strong the demand for this type of unit is – and an appetite for homes in the Waterdown market.
“It speaks to not only what Waterdown itself has to offer, but it's connectivity to surrounding areas, with it being perfectly positioned between Hamilton, Burlington, and highways that take you either west or east,” Paikan said.
Collins-Williams agreed.
“I think that there is a lot of underlying demand in terms of the market fundamentals. We have experienced high population growth.”
Planned 4,000-unit development ready to pivot
With the buyers' market on condos falling, the developers behind Waterdown's largest approved housing development project are ready to pivot to meet demand. John Krpan is the owner of the Krpan Group, the developer behind the planned 4,000-unit iConnect community in the Flamborough Power Centre.
"It's not impacting us because we're basically building a city there," he said, adding that the group plans to build out its "city" over a decade or more.
The iConnect community, which will be built where the current Value Village, Dollarama, Treasure Hunt and Crunch Fitness are located, is planned to include a mix of high-rise and mid-rise condos, along with townhouses. Krpan said the group's vision is to build a complete community that is walking distance from the Clappison Avenue business park and stores like NoFrills, Walmart and Dollarama.
But with years of development ahead of the project, and an already soft market further softened by possible tariffs, Krpan said, the group is taking its time to build.
"We're repositioning ourselves and building the infrastructure for whatever the market demand is at that point in time. If it stays current the way it is today – very, very slow – then we'll be positioning on purpose-built rentals," he said.
